Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered annualized total returns of 10.80 % to its shareholders.
The company has managed to deliver a 3.50% average annual increase in its EPS between 2000 and 2009. Analysts expect Eaton Vance to earn $1.39 per share in 2010 and $1.76/share in 2011.
Overall I am bullish on asset managers in the long run, and Eaton Vance fits by default. As we have millions of baby boomers retiring and needing financial advice, I expect them to use financial advice from certified planners, which would pre-sell open and closed-end funds and other financial products. Once a product has been sold to investors, it creates a recurring income stream to the provider of funds. The revenues that investment managers generate are realizable in cash almost instantaneously, which is a big plus. New product offerings could also contribute to growth, although at $173 billion in asset under management, it won’t be the main source of revenues for Eaton Vance. Acquisitions to obtain companies that target high-net worth individuals could be a big driver for future growth, as would be expansion internationally. Another positive is that as US stock prices keep increasing, this would eventually attract more investors to add in more money, which would create even higher profits for companies like Eaton Vance. Overtime I expect Eaton Vance to get an even larger pile of assets under management due to all of the above mentioned reasons, which would lead to earnings and dividend growth.
One of the largest risks for Eaton Vance includes competition, which could result in net outflows for assets under management as well as decrease in fees charged to clients. Another risk includes prolonged declines in equity markets, which could turn investors off stock market investing. Most notably that hasn’t been the case for Eaton Vance during the “lost decade”, as assets under management grew from $49.20 billion at the end of 2000 to $173.30 billion as of July 31, 2010.
The company generates very high return on equity, whose trend has closely followed the rise and fall in equity markets over the past decade. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.
The company has managed to raise its annual dividend at a rate of of 22.50% annually since 2000, which is much higher than the growth in EPS. The main reason is the increase in the dividend payout ratio over the past decade. I would reasonably expect Eaton Vance to manage to raise distributions by at least 10% per year for the next few years. The latest dividend increase was in October 2010, when the company raised distributions by 12.50% to 18 cents/share.
A 22 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling every three years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1990, Eaton Vance has actually managed to double its dividend payment every four years on average. The company last raised its dividends in 2010 by 12.50%.
The dividend payout ratio has increased over the past decade, breaking out above 50% in 2009. Given the expected earnings of $1.40 in 2010 and the new annual dividend rate of $0.72/share, I would expect the payout to drop to 50% and to decrease further by 2011. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.
Currently Eaton Vance is overvalued at 21.20 times earnings, has an adequately covered distribution and yields only 2.40%. Competitor State Street (STT) trades at a P/E of 11.50 and yields 0.10%, while Blackrock (BLK) trades at a P/E of 8.30 and yields 2.40%. Ben Franklin Resources (BEN), which like Eaton Vance (EV) has a long history of uninterrupted dividend increases trades at a P/E of 18.40 and yields a paltry 0.80%.
Eaton Vance would be more attractively priced below $28. I would continue to monitor this company for dips below $28.
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