A Simple Model For Estimating Future Returns

I use a simple model when it comes to investments. Your returns are a function of:

1. Dividends

2. Growth in earnings per share

3. Change in the valuation multiple

As long-term investor, I care about the first two items, which are the fundamental returns. If I select a good quality company at a decent entry price, the goal is then sit back and hopefully let it keep growing earnings, dividends and intrinsic value. I do not try to bet on multiples shrinking or expanding. In general, if you look at long-term equity returns, the change in multiple matters the least in the long-run. It does matter in the short-run, like the next 5 years or  so. But the longer one holds a business that keeps working, the less the impact of changes in the valuation multiple. This of course works on average, since multiples were generally around 15 - 20 times earnings. There were times where multiples were higher, but those were offset by times where multiples were lower. If we get starting multiples of 50 or 100 times earnings, then things would be different. But this has never been the case in the US, so we'd worry about it if/when it happens (though it did happen in Japan in 1989, but that's the story of another time).

For the US stock market in general, we have often heard that it has delivered a total annual return of 10%/year since either 1802, 1871 or 1926, whichever study is being referenced. This has been achieved through 6% annualized growth in earnings per share coupled with a 4% average dividend yield. Dividend growth has been close to 6%/year as well. As we all know rising earnings are the source behind future rising dividends.

6% + 4% = 10%.

This exercise really helps me think about the trade-off between dividend yield and dividend growth. 

If equities never grow earnings per share, but are available at a dividend yield of 10%, then future total returns would be 10%/year, on average.

If equities never paid dividends, but grew earnings per share by 10%/year, then future total returns would be 10%/year on average as well (provided we do not 

This model is very helpful, when it comes to evaluating individual companies as well. Let's look at two companies, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and NextEra Energy (NEE).

As far as the companies are concerned, they are both members of the dividend aristocrats list. In order to gain entry to this list, a company needs to be a member of S&P 500 and increase annual dividends to shareholders for at least 25 consecutive years. This last item does not happen by accident. It is usually a sign of a strong competitive advantage that allows a company to not only grow earnings per share for decades, but also to generate rising torrents of excess cashflows for decades as well. I do believe that a rising stream of annual dividends is a good initial indicator of quality. 

However, this merely puts a stock on my list for further research. The next steps involved reviewing the trends in earnings per share, dividends per share, dividend payout ratios, and checking on valuations, in order to determine if the company is still fundamentally sound and also available at a good price. 

I applied the above model to both companies below:

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) sells for 11.50 times forward earnings and yields 3.15%. It has a 5 year annualized dividend growth of 6.76%. If I add 3.15 and 6.75 I end up with 9.90, which is very close to an estimated total return of 10%/year. Plus, if that annual dividend of $2/share managed to grow at 7%/year over the next decade, we may see an annual dividend of $4/share in 2034/2025, for an yield on cost of 6.30%. That's future yield on cost without taking into account future dividend reinvestments. Check my review of ADM for more information about the company.

NextEra Energy (NEE) sells for 21 times forward earnings and yields 2.85%. It has a 5 year annualized dividend growth of 10.75%. If I add 2.85 and 10.75 I end up with 13.60, which is higher than the estimated total return of 10%/year. However, we also have some margin of safety in growth expectations, especially if they come in 3% - 4% lower than the past. If that annual dividend of $2/share managed to grow at 7%/year over the next decade, we may see an annual dividend of $4/share in 2034/2025, for an yield on cost of 5.70%.  If it grew at 10%/year, it would double in 7 years. That's future yield on cost without taking into account future dividend reinvestments. Check my review of NEE for more information about the company.

This model is also good for making sense of company returns over certain time periods. It's a helpful tool to review past returns, but also to stress-test various possible future scenarios.

As we saw above, dividends and earnings per share growth are the fundamental returns. But the changes in valuations are speculative returns. 

For example, let's look at the best performing Dividend Aristocrat over the past decade. That is Cintas (CTAS). 

Today, the stock sells for 45.67 times forward earnings and yields 0.82%. The current price is $761.59 as of July 26th, 2024. It is expected to earn $16.67/share in 2025 and pays $6.24/share in annual dividends. The company earned $15.40/share in 2024. This was a very high growth from the $2.75/share that the company earned in 2014.

The company's share price was 62.12 at the end of May 2014. This translates into a P/E of 22.58 in 2014. The yield was 1.25%, as annual dividend was 77 cents/share for 2013. It was raise to 85 cents/share in 2014.

The company successfully managed to grow earnings per share from $2.75/share in 2014 to $15.40/share in 2024. And have a forward EPS of $16.67/share for 2025. This 506% increase in earnings per share fueled a large portion of returns. The small, but growing dividend, reinvested over time, also helped fuel returns. But if the P/E ratio had stayed at 22.58, the stock price would have only been at $376.41 today. So you can see that the doubling of P/E ratio definitely helped fuel future returns. As the company did well fundamentally, investors felt comfortable paying a higher multiple for its earnings stream. The problem can come if their animal spirits cool off, and the stock valuation returns to a more reasonable 20 - 25 times earnings. As a result, investors who buy the stock today for its growth potential may not realize a return on their investment for as long as a decade, even if earnings per share double from here. It's unlikely that earnings per share would grow by 500% through 2035 however. The company is expected to earn $33/share in 2033, which is the farthest Wall Street estimate I could find.

This is where I always try to evaluate fundamentals in terms of earnings per share growth and dividend growth. I try to evaluate the likelihood of those fundamental changes continuing. But I also try to evaluate valuations, and see if I have any margin of safety there.

Today we learned about the sources of returns. We also learned how to use this simple technique on a backwards, current and foward measure. We looked at a few examples, and hopefully learned something that we could use in the future.

Thirteen Dividend Growth Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With Raises

I review the list of dividend increases every single week, as part of my monitoring process. It helps me evaluate existing companies and potentially identify companies for further research.

I usually focus my attention on companies with more established track record of annual dividend increases. This helps me focus on companies that have a higher chance of increasing dividends throughout a typical boom/bust economic cycle. This is why I focus on companies that have managed to grow dividends for at least a decade. What better evidence of the ability to grow dividends over a typical boom/bust cycle than a history of regular annual dividend increases for over a decade?

During the past week, there were 31 companies that increased dividends to shareholders. Thirteen of them have managed to increases dividends for at least a decade. The companies include:

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) provides banking and financial products and services for individual consumers, small and middle-market businesses, institutional investors, large corporations, and governments worldwide. It operates in four segments: Consumer Banking, Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM), Global Banking, and Global Markets. 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 8.30% to $0.26/share. This is the 11th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past five years, it has managed to increase dividends at an annualized rate of 11.24%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $0.43/share to $3.10/share.

The company is expected to earn $3.26/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 12.80 times forward earnings and yields 2.50%

Cintas Corporation (CTAS) engages in the provision of corporate identity uniforms and related business services primarily in the United States, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Uniform Rental and Facility Services, First Aid and Safety Services, and All Other segments. 

Cintas Corporation raised quarterly dividend by 15.60% to $1.56/share. This is the 41st consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend aristocrat. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 19.52% over the past five years, which is impressive.

This was fueled by growth in earnings per share over the past decade. Cintas grew earnings from $3.68/share in 2015 to $15.46/share in 2024.

Cintas is expected to earn $16.67/share in 2025.

Cintas is the best performing Dividend Aristocrat over the past decade, when measured in terms of total returns. While the fundamental results have been impressive, a large tailwind to returns has been the expansion of the P/E ratio. The stock is expensive today at 45.30 times forward earnings. It yields 0.83%. Back in 2014, the stock traded at a P/E between 16 and 23 for reference. The range of dividend yield was between a low of 1.20% and a high of 1.70%.

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) operates as the bank holding company for Community Trust Bank, Inc. that engages in the provision of commercial and personal banking, and trust and wealth management services to small and mid-sized communities in eastern, northeastern, central, and south-central Kentucky, as well as southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 2.20% to $0.47/share. This is the 44th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend champion. Over the past five years, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 5.69%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $2.50/share to $4.36/share.

The company is expected to earn $4.38/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 11.70 times forward earnings and yields 3.70%

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) operates as the bank holding company for Frost Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services in Texas.

The company increased quarterly dividends by 3.30% to $0.95/share. This is the 31st consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend champion. Over the past five years, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 6.77%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $4.33/share to $9.11/share.

The company is expected to earn $8.44/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 14 times forward earnings and yields 3.20%

First Community Bankshares, Inc. (FCBC) operates as the financial holding company for First Community Bank that provides various banking products and services.

The company increased quarterly dividends by 6.90% to $0.31share. This is the 13th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past five years, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 8.26%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $1.34/share to $2.67/share.

The company is expected to earn $2.69/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 16.80 times forward earnings and yields 2.74%

1st Source Corporation (SRCE) operates as the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products to individual and business clients.

The Board of Directors approved an increase in the cash dividend of two cents per share, raising the approved dividend for the quarter to $0.36 per common share, up 12.50% from the cash dividend declared a year ago. This is the 36th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend champion. Over the past five years, it has managed to increase dividends at an annualized rate of 6.25%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $2.17/share to $5.03/share.

The company is expected to earn $4.77/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 13.10 times forward earnings and yields 2.20%

Home Bancshares, Inc. (HOMB) operates as the bank holding company for Centennial Bank that provides commercial and retail banking, and related financial services to businesses, real estate developers and investors, individuals, and municipalities. 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 8.30% to $0.195/share. This is the 14th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. During the past five years, the company managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 9.37%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $0.86/share to $1.94/share.

The company is expected to earn $2.07/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 13.70 times forward earnings and yields 2.75%

Kellanova (K) manufactures and markets snacks and convenience foods in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Australia, and Africa. 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 1.80% to $0.57/share. This is the 21st consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past five years, it has managed to increase dividends at an annualized rate of 2.66%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $1.77/share to $2.78/share.

The company is expected to earn $3.62/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 15.80 times forward earnings and yields 3.90%

NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is a financial holding company, which provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services.

The company increased quarterly dividends by 6.30% to $0.34/share. This is the 12th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past five years, it has managed to increase dividends at an annualized rate of 4.61%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $1.71/share to $2.67/share.

The company is expected to earn $2.88/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 17.20 times forward earnings and yields 2.75%

NextEra Energy Partners, LP (NEP) acquires, owns, and manages contracted clean energy projects in the United States.

The partnership raised quarterly distributions by 1.40% to $0.905/unit. . This declaration reflects an annualized increase of approximately 6% from a year earlier. This is the tenth consecutive year of distribution increases for this newly minted dividend achiever. The partnership has managed to grow distributions at an annualized rate of 14.50%/year over the past five years.

Right now it sells at a distribution yield of 13.80%.

Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) provides retirement, asset management, and insurance products and services to businesses, individuals, and institutional clients worldwide. The company operates through Retirement and Income Solutions, Principal Asset Management, and Benefits and Protection segments. 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 1.40% to $0.72/share. This is the 17th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past five years, it has managed to increase dividends at an annualized rate of 4.36%.

The company earned $3.70/share in 2014. It earned $2.58/share in 2023. The earnings stream is volatile, which explains this partly.

The company is expected to earn $7.28/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 11.60 times forward earnings and yields 3.55%

Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) offers environmental services in the United States and Canada.

The company hiked quarterly dividends by 8.40% to $0.58/share. This is the 21st consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past 5 years, it has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 7.45%.

"We are raising our quarterly dividend by approximately 8 percent," said Jon Vander Ark, president and chief executive officer. "This is the 21st consecutive year we've increased our annual dividend, which reinforces our commitment to efficiently return cash to shareholders."

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $1.54/share to $5.47/share.

The company is expected to earn $6.14/share in 2024.

The stock sells at 30.83 times forward earnings, which unfortunately is a tad too rich for my taste right now. It offers a dividend yield of 1.25%. The stock was selling at a cheaper valuation when I profiled it a decade or so ago.

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia.

The company increased quarterly dividends by 1.20% to $0.82/share. This is the 57th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend king. This is also the third consecutive year in which the company increased dividends by a penny. Over the past five years, it has managed to increase dividends at an annualized rate of 4.53%.

The company earned $4.87/share in 2014, but lost money in 2023. The highest earnings occurred in 2021, when it earned $10.55/share.

The company is expected to earn $3.98/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 22.50 times forward earnings and yields 3.45%

Relevant Articles:

- Ten Dividend Growth Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With Raises

- Nine Dividend Growth Stocks Increasing Dividends Last Week

- Four Dividend Growth Stocks Raising Dividends Last Week

- Six Companies Increasing Dividends to Shareholders Last Week

Value in Growth Clothes: Growth in Value Clothes

There’s been plenty of ink recently spilled over Walgreen’s (WBA), a popular dividend stock. The company had been a darling for dividend investors, and up until recently had a high dividend yield. The company has been on hard times, closing stores, and had to end a 48 year streak of annual dividend increases in January 2024. It did the unthinkable – it cut dividends. 

Many view Walgreen’s as a cautionary tale against investing for dividends.

On the other hand of the spectrum, many are chasing Eli Lilly (LLY), a company which seems to have found the pill formula against obesity. The stock is a top performer over the past decade, one of the largest companies in the US. 

Performance of Walgreen versus Eli Lilly, 2009 - 2024

Many view Eli Lilly as a growth stock. Ironically, many view it as a cautionary tale against investing for dividends too.

Few are aware that it even pays a dividend however. The company is now a dividend achiever.

It’s fun to take a snapshot today, and measure fundamentals and popular sentiment. 

It’s fun to observe how stock prices really drive investor sentiment. Everyone wishes they owned a hot high flier. Nobody wishes they ever even heard about a company that has fallen on hard times however.

Today, everyone sees Ely Lilly as a hot growth stock. Everyone sees Walgreen’s as a broken value stock.

Yet, 15 years ago or so, the roles were actually reversed. 

Performance of Walgreen versus Eli Lilly, 1994 - 2009

Back in 2009 – 2010, many investors saw Walgreen’s (WBA) as a growth stock. The company was a leader in its field, it was growing store count, and it was a beneficiary of a decades long trends. Its earnings per share had been growing for decades, as had its dividend. It had delivered an amazing total return performance for its shareholders. It was a compounder that often sold at premium valuations. Check my review of Walgreen Co from 2009.

The company earned $2.02/share in 2009, which it grew to $5.02/share in 2022. Now it's projected to earn $2.85 in 2024. 

Back in 2009 – 2010, many investors saw Eli Lilly (LLY) as a value stock. The company had not grown earnings over the preceding decade, it was about to halt dividend increases and sold at single digit P/E and yielded almost 6%. It’s drug pipeline looked bleak, as the company had a slew of patent expirations. Check my review of Eli Lilly from 2009.

The company earned $3.94/share in 2009, and grew earnings to $5.82 in 2023. It's estimated to earn $13.73/share in 2024. 

Eli Lilly sold at a P/E of 8.80 in 2009. Today it sells at a forward P/E of 64.

While EPS did grow, there's also been a large tailwind from the expanding P/E ratio. It's possible that the company managed to grow into its multiple if it indeed grows earnings per share at the fast rate that Wallstreet is expecting it to do. But there is very little margin of safety in case those lofty projections do not get met even by a tiny bit.

As we all know, future returns are a function of fundamental returns and speculative returns.

1. Dividends

2. Earnings per share growth

3. Change in valuation

The first two items (dividends and EPS growth) are the fundamental sources of returns. The last one, change in valuation, is the speculative source of investment returns. 

Today Eli Lilly investors are paying a hefty premium for future growth. Even if that growth does materialize, it is within the spectrum of possibilities that they generate low or no total returns over the next decade or so, merely because the entry valuation is so lofty.

That's because earnings per share could grow massively, but if the P/E ratio shrinks, investors would see little in price returns. For example, if earnings per share do indeed reach $57/share in 2033, but the stock is valued at 15 times earnings, that would translate into a share price of $855. This is as much as the current share price of $857.

Today, Walgreen’s is viewed as a value trap, especially after disappointing over the past 15 years.

Eli Lilly is viewed as a promising growth stock, especially after exceeding expectations over the past 15 years.

Ironically, I had a lot of readers who bought Eli Lilly about 15 years ago or so for the dividend. It offered a high yield, which was appealing. If they held on to it, they would have made out like bandits..

One could argue that the same investors who bought Eli Lilly in 2009 for the dividend probably also bought Pfizer too. And that's a fair argument. The issue of course is that your losers can only lose so much, whereas your winners can really make up for many of those losers.

Perspective is a fascinating thing, isn’t it?

15 years ago, everyone saw Walgreen’s as a promising growth stock, available at a good valuation.

15 years ago, everyone saw Eli Lilly as a value trap, which was cheap for a reason.

Yet, conventional wisdom failed. 

This article is merely to point out that things can change for better or worse. It also means that the future may surprise your current expectations, for better or worse.

When you buy company at a good price, the most you can lose is the amount you invested, minus any dividends reinvested elsewhere. Hence, it is important to limit the amount of exposure per individual company when taking those signals.

The upside is that when a company really does perform to exceed expectations, the upside is unlimited. But you do need to hold on, and not sell early. 

Hence it's important to have margin of safety. That means diversification, buying value at a good price, and holding though thick or thin. 

While valuation is part art, part science, it is important to realize that overpaying massively for a company is the opposite of margin of safety.

Ten Dividend Growth Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With Raises

I review the list of dividend increases every week, as part of my review process. This exercise helps me to monitor existing holdings. It also helps me potentially identify companies for further research.

This exercise also shows the process I would go to review a company quickly, and the steps I would take to determine if I want to review it further for potential inclusion, or not. 

I typically focus my attention on companies which have managed to increase dividends for at least ten years in a row. Over the past week, there were ten companies which managed to increase dividends and also have a ten year track record of annual dividend increases under their belt. The companies include:

Albemarle Corporation (ALB) develops, manufactures, and markets engineered specialty chemicals worldwide. It operates through three segments: Energy Storage, Specialties and Ketjen.

The company raised quarterly dividends by 1.20% to $0.405/share. This was the 30th year of consecutive annual dividend increases for this dividend aristocrat. Over the past decade, the company has managed to grow dividend at an annualized rate of 5.20%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $1.69/share to $13.41/share.

The company is expected to earn $2.32/share in 2024. The cyclical nature of the business is pretty evident from those fluctuations in annual earnings per share figures over the past decade.

The stock sells for 39.80 times forward earnings and yields 1.75%.

Community Financial System, Inc. (CBU) operates as the bank holding company for Community Bank, N.A. that provides various banking and other financial services to retail, commercial, institutional, and municipal customers. It operates through three segments: Banking, Employee Benefit Services, and All Other. 

The company raised its quarterly dividend by 2.20% to $0.46/share. This is the 32nd consecutive year of dividend increases for this dividend champion. Over the past decade, the company has managed to increase dividends at an annualized rate of 4.87%.

“Our consistent profitability, rooted in our financial services business model, coupled with our strong cash flows, have positioned us to increase our dividend for 32 consecutive years. We have returned over $750 million to our Shareholders through dividends over the last 10 years and believe a growing dividend demonstrates our commitment to provide favorable long term returns to our Shareholders.”

The company earned $2.24/share in 2014 and eked out a small rate of growth in EPS to $2.45/share in 2023.

The company is expecting to earn $3.21/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 18.30 times forward earnings and yields 3.15%.

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I), and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 2% to $1.045/share. This is the 20th year of consecutive annual dividend increases for this dividend achiever. Over the past decade, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 2.77%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $2.66/share to $3.54/share. 

The company is expected to earn $5.97/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 17.90 times forward earnings and yields 3.90%.

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) operates as a holding company for The Bank of Greene County that provides various financial services in the United States. The company has generated impressive returns to shareholders since its IPO in 1999. The annual report looks interesting to read as well.

The bank raised its quarterly dividends by 12.50% to $0.09/share. This was the eleventh year of consecutive annual dividend increases for this dividend achiever. Over the past decade, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 5.54%.

The company managed to grow earnings per share from $0.39 in 2014 to $1.81 in 2023.

The stock sells for 23.70 times earnings and yields 1.06%.

Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) operates as the bank holding company for Mercantile Bank of Michigan that provides commercial and retail banking services to small- to medium-sized businesses and individuals in the United States. 

The company raised its quarterly dividend by 2.90% to $0.36/share. This also represents a 5.90% increase over the dividend paid during the same time last year. This is the 12th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past decade, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 11.53%.

"The Board of Directors' declaration of an increased third quarter cash dividend is a testament to our ongoing commitment to enhance shareholder value through worthwhile cash returns," said Ray Reitsma, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mercantile.  "Our financial metrics have remained strong during the lengthy period of uncertain economic and operating conditions, which coupled with the realization of solid financial results in future periods as anticipated, should allow us to continue to reward shareholders with competitive dividend yields while maintaining sufficient capital levels to meet asset growth objectives."

Between 2014 and 2024, the company managed to grow earnings from $1.28/share to $5.13/share.

The company is expected to earn $4.81/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 10 times forward earnings and yields 3%.

NNN REIT (NNN) invests primarily in high-quality retail properties subject generally to long-term, net leases.

National Retail Properties raised quarterly dividends by 2.70% to $0.58/share. This marks the 35th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend champion.

Over the past decade, the REIT has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 3.37%

Steve Horn, Chief Executive Officer, commented: "Maintaining a multi-year perspective has kept NNN in position to increase the annual dividend for the 35th consecutive year in 2024.  A disciplined capital deployment strategy and a strong, flexible balance sheet have allowed NNN to continue this impressive track record of consistent growth."

The REIT generated $3.26/share in FFO in 2023. It is expected to generate $3.31/share in FFO in 2024.

The REIT sells for 13.90 times forward FFO and yields 5.03%.

PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) manufactures and distributes paints, coatings, and specialty materials in the United States, Canada, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Industrial Coatings.

The company increased quarterly dividends by 4.60% to $0.68/share. This is the 53rd consecutive annual dividend increases for this dividend king. During the past decade, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 7.70%.

“We are proud of PPG’s long heritage of rewarding shareholders and pleased with the opportunity to increase our dividend per share. This dividend growth reflects the strong confidence that PPG’s Board has in the resiliency of our business and the strength and future growth of our operating cash flow,” said Tim Knavish, PPG chairman and chief executive officer.

Earnings per share declined from $7.60 in 2014 to $5.38 in 2023.

The company is expected to earn $8.29/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 15.45 times forward earnings and yields 2.12%.

Regions Financial Corporation (RF) is a financial holding company which provides banking and bank-related services to individual and corporate customers. It operates through three segments: Corporate Bank, Consumer Bank, and Wealth Management. 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 4.20% to $0.25/share. This is the 12th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past decade, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 26.50%. The high rate of dividend growth is due to the fact the bank cut dividends to the bone during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 - 2009. The growth is unlikely to be repeated over the next decade from current levels.

Regions Financial managed to grow earnings from $0.80/share in 2014 to $2.11/share in 2023.

The bank is expected to earn $1.97/share.

The stock sells for 11.20 times forward earnings and yields 4.52%.

State Street Corporation (STT)  provides a range of financial products and services to institutional investors worldwide. 

The company raised quarterly dividends by 10.10% to $0.76/share. This is the 14th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Over the past decade, the company managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 9.70%.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings per share from $3 to $9.35.

The company is expected to earn $8.20/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 10.30 times forward earnings and yields 3.60%

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) operates in the railroad business in the United States. 

Union Pacific raised its quarterly dividend by 3.10% to $1.34/share. This marks the 18th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. Union Pacific had kept the quarterly dividend unchanged at $1.30/share since the second quarter of 2022. If the company had not raised dividends this year,  it would have lost its status as a dividend achiever. Over the past decade, the company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 13.40%.

“Union Pacific has a strong track record of delivering cash returns to its shareholders,” said Jennifer Hamann, executive vice president and chief financial officer. “We’re building on that record with a 3% increase in the third quarter, our 18th consecutive year of increased annual dividends per share.”

Between 2014 and 2023 the company grew earnings from $5.77/share to $10.47/share.

The company is expected to earn $11.24/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 21.50 times forward earnings and yields 2.20%.

Relevant Articles:

- Nine Dividend Growth Stocks Increasing Dividends Last Week

- Four Dividend Growth Stocks Raising Dividends Last Week

- Six Companies Increasing Dividends to Shareholders Last Week

- Five Dividend Growth Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With Raises Last Week

The Best Performing Stock in the Past Century

I recently read an interesting paper titled "Which U.S. Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns?" by prof Hendrik Bessembinder.

This paper reviewed the annualized returns on all 29,078 publicly-listed stocks in the US between December 1925 and December 2023. It found that the the best performing stock over the past century or so in the US was Altria Group (MO) (which was known as Philip Morris).

Investors who put $1 into Altria in December 1925, and then kept everything and reinvested all those dividends, ended up $2.65 Million dollars. That's a cumulative return of 265 million percent.

That comes out to an annualized return of 16.29%. This is a market beating return, which resulted in a magnificent amount of wealth, especially when you compound that over the course of almost a century (98 years to be precise).

The table below lists the common stocks with the highest cumulative returns over the past century in the US. I see a lot of familiar dividend names here:

One striking observation that can be drawn from the data in Table 2 is that the highest cumulative returns delivered by individual common stocks are attributable to annualized returns that are only moderately high. However, these moderately high returns are compounded over long time periods, averaging 92.1 years. Of course, few investors have an investment horizon of one century. However, if you can find consistent companies that can build wealth at a slow but steady fashion over long periods of time, you can build generational wealth. And probably maintain it too.

This basically shows that many dividend companies with staying power have managed to compound returns to shareholders over long periods of time. Which is really how you generate long-term wealth.

Certain industries are built to last. So are certain companies.

While future winners are hard to identify in advance, there are certain lessons to learn from studying past winners.

Notably, you are looking for:

1. Wide Moats

2. Strong Brands

3. Earnings per share growth

4. Long-term runway

5. Staying power

Thank you for reading!

The value of experience

“Good decisions come from experience. Experience. comes from bad decisions.” - Mark Twain

 

I am a big fan of long-term investing. This is one of the few areas in life, where a small initial amount can deliver amazing results, net worth and income to the patient individual.

 

However, long-term investing is not smooth sailing at all. There are a lot of obstacles to compounding, a lot of doubt, fear and uncertainty along the way. Not many are able to go through the gut wrenching declines, or the long flat markets that test everyone's conviction.

 

On the other hand, you are also always worried that your investments would give back any gains, and that there will be a big bad bear market, that also coincides with the next great depression. Even if everything goes according to plan, there is always someone that sounds very smart in predicting exactly how and when the collapse would occur.

It’s even harder to stick to your investments, when you constantly see others that may have somehow selected a better, shinier and lookingly more profitable investment or strategy than you. You get envy, you feel like your strategy is “not working”, you want to jump ship.

The fun part is that no investment strategy will always work all the time, and will always outperform everyone else.

The best strategy is the one you can stick to, through thick or thin.

This is why it is imperative that you find a strategy that you are comfortable with, and then stick to it. One still needs to try and improve over time, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they need to rip and replace it every few years. I am talking about small, incremental changes, nothing drastic.

After all, markets go through different cycles and regime changes. What’s hot in one cycle, may turn out to be a major dud in the next. The investor who chases performance may end up capitulating from their former strategy at the worst time possible. They may end up compounding their mistake by embracing the next strategy at its height of importance, but possibly the worst time for returns.

 

Veteran investors know to control their emotions, and just stick to their plan however, knowing that their time would come. They win some during a favorable cycle, keep investing through the down cycle, and live to see another day when the tide turns in their favor.

Some of these cycles may be very long – think a decade or two. Those are career making cycles, which may give you the impression of a long-term trend. That makes a lot of sense, because on average, I would guesstimate that the average investor only seriously invests for about 2 – 3 decades.

Recency bias and performance chasing are thus something to be aware of. Biases and impulse could be a problem for your long-term wealth building plan.

For example, a lot of investors today are just saying to just invest in S&P 500. This is particularly easy to conclude after witnessing basically a non-stop bull market since 2009. While we have had some declines in 2011, 2018, and even a couple of bear markets in 2020 and 2022, US Stocks have been on a tear.

 

This is in stark contrast with the experience from 2000 to 2012, when US Stocks practically went nowhere. US Stocks practically delivered zero in total returns during this time period. To add insult to injury, we also experienced two gut wrenching 50% declines – the dot-com bust and the Global Financial Crisis. These events also coincided with recessions, which also increased unemployment and made it very difficult not only to hold on to your stocks, but add to them. After all, back at the depths of the 2008 – 2009 recession, a lot of investors saw that their regular 401 (k) contribution plans had not made any profit, going back to the late 1990s. Even if you just kept investing regularly, you didn’t make money. That was a terrible thing, especially given inflation and the fact that many investors had to dip into their nest eggs, amidst unemployment and the difficulty in securing another job. Even finding work at Wal-Mart was not easy at that time.

Back around 2000 – 2012, it was very hard to convince folks to invest in US stocks. That’s because the recent trends had been that of stagnation. Everyone else was focused on the Emerging Markets, and Foreign Markets, as well as Bonds, which had had a very good decade. Remember the BRICs?  So the general sentiment was to diversify abroad, and into other asset classes. Including commodities as well. Papers were being written, showing how investing in commodities had somehow done better than investing in stocks too. Then as we all know, the pendulum swung the other way – the cycle of US stocks not doing well, and foreign/emerging market stocks doing very well ended in 2011/2012. Now it’s the opposite since 2011.

Investors who owned US Stocks in 2000 had their patience tested. But if they held on for 12 long years, they were rewarded by 12 years of bounty, which more than compensated them for the pain.

And of course, if you remember, back in 1999/2000, the US was at the top of the world. Owning S&P 500 was the no-brainer investment, especially after it had done so well in the 1990s. Of course, it didn’t work out for the next 12 years, testing everyone’s patience and conviction.

I follow a lot of novice investors who seem to think that the only way to invest today is by investing in technology companies. Focusing on the best performing sector of the past 15 years definitely seems like a smart strategy today.

However, it ignores past history. It’s also incredibly risky. The past 15 years were great. But the previous 15 years, aka those from 2000 to 2015 were not. That’s when you had the dot-com bubble bursting, which saw an 80% decline in the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100. Many individual companies fell even more, to the point of going bust. Many investors lost their shirts, never again to invest in the stock market. Then it took 15 long years for the average to regain its all-time-highs. Many of the leaders from 2000 have not recovered, with some going under. The leaders today are companies that weren’t even public in 2000 or were just small footnotes on the stock market.

The investors buying tech in the 1990s and early 2000 have mostly been wiped out. It is very unlikely to find a tech investor today, who was also there to overcome the pain of the dot-com bust. The investors buying tech today, or buying it in the past 10 – 15 years were very likely not investing before that. They have no muscle memory from the carnage. 

Sector bets are risky, because they seem like they would go in forever, and they do, until they don’t. Do you remember the best sector between 2000 and 2014? That was energy. The energy revolution did deliver energy independence to the US. But investors did not do so well over the past decade.

Many Investors tend to base their investment decisions based on recent experience. They simply take recent experience, and extrapolate it into the future. That may work under some conditions, but not work under others. Either way, the experience could be a two-edged sword. On one hand, it could be profitable and works. On the other hand, it could be unprofitable and it doesn’t work.

In the context of investors who are piling on to technology today, all they’ve seen is a concentrated sector bet work. So they take this recent experience, and extrapolate it into the future, without thinking about what could go wrong.

Those who have lived through tech carnages, such as the 2000 – 2012 period, tend to remember those and extrapolate into the future as well. They are humbled by it. However, they also missed out on the huge tech run in the past 10 – 15 years, because of the painful experiences from the dot-com bust.

The same goes for the cycles of “value” and “growth”. US and international. Dividend versus non-dividend. Technology.

As you can see, there are long cycles. The experience in one cycle would likely mean making money. But the same lessons would be devastating into another cycle.

For example, some investors learned that timing the market works between 2000 and 2012. Selling S&P 500 when it hit 1,500 was smart, and buying it back when it’s low worked. The issue was that in 2013 that was a bad idea, because if you sold, you missed out on a 4 bagger. Or worse, if you were short the market, you lost money in one of the longest bull markets in history.

For another example, in a bull market investors learn the lesson that “valuation doesn’t matter”. When a rising tide lifts all boats, and especially the more speculative companies, you get rewarded for taking on risks. Valuation is more of a hindrance to taking on those risks. However, it does matter in the very long run, and could be especially helpful if we are not in a raging bull market. Which historically we are not always in.

You have to ride the ups and downs, in order to stand a chance of making money and not just treading water all your investing life.

Dividend Growth Investing has been my strategy of choice. It was definitely easy to stick to it, as the 2000 – 2012 period saw it do very well in making money and doing better than the market. Other strategies like technology did really really poorly, amidst 80% drawdowns that had many investors sell and lose hope in markets altogether. During the hard times, dividend growth stocks delivered slow and steady returns.

However, the past 12 years saw it do worse than the market. There are other strategies like technology, which really did very well. While Dividend Growth Investors made money, they didn’t do as well as others. During the good times, dividend growth stocks delivered slow and steady returns. I don't think relative performance comparisons are useful, because you end up chasing performance, and less likely to stick to an investment strategy through the eventual ups and downs. Keeping up with the Dow Joneses could be costly in the long run.

Many investors are extrapolating the good times of the past 12+ years, and assuming they would continue indefinitely. This is where a lot of investors are abandoning dividend oriented strategies. I believe these investors are making a mistake, as they are chasing performance and subjecting themselves to their recency bias. Of course, if there is indeed a paradigm shift, it’s possible that I am just a stubborn old person who refuses to learn. In that case, I won’t be the disciplined person I think I am. Oh well.

I believe that if we do see a regime shift again, at some point in the future, the dividend strategies would shine again on a relative and absolute basis. (we saw that briefly in 2022). This is what is appealing to me with dividend oriented strategies – when the going gets tough and we have a bear  market, you don’t lose as much. This makes it easier to hold on during the hard times. The predictability of dividends, which are received on a regular schedule, also makes it easy to hold on to a stock, and focus on fundamentals, rather than the oscillating share price. After all, dividends are much more stable, and predictable when compared to share prices. That’s because dividends come from cashflows, and not the opinions of others. Share prices reflect the opinions of others, which is why they can overshoot above or below intrinsic values.

During a bull market however, reliable dividend companies are shunned. They do not go up as much as others, particularly shiny new emerging concepts. However, they still deliver slow but steady returns. When the cycle turns, those investors are happy to own those steady eddies, which shower them with growing torrents of cash. All of this makes them sleep well at night.

The things that make Buffett special, is that he has been able to consistently make money, despite the cycle we are in. He has done that, because he has stuck to his strategy for decades, while patiently improving. Perhaps having some diversified exposure can help.

Those ordinary investors like you and me however have only a few smart tools within our disposal.

Notably, to stick to our strategy, and stay the course, while ignoring the songs of the sirens. Someone will always be getting rich faster than you or me, but that’s not the end of the world, for as long as we reach our own goals and objectives. Keeping up with the Joneses can be costly, and derail our train on its way to financial independence.

The investment journey is long and arduous. In order to achieve goals, one needs to survive it first. Chasing what’s hot may work for a while in one cycle, but it is not a plan that would work over one’s whole investment lifecycle. That lifecycle is comprised of many cycles. What's hot in one cycle is unlikely to be hot over all the cycles you are going to be investing for. Sticking to a strategy lets investors stay the course, and reach their goals and objectives. It also helps ignore the noise.

 

 

Nine Dividend Growth Stocks Increasing Dividends Last Week

I review the list of dividend increases every single week, as part of my monitoring process. This exercise helps me to monitor existing holdings. It also helps me potentially identify companies for further research.

I typically focus my attention on the companies with a ten year track record of annual dividend increases. 

Over the past week, there were nine companies that both raised dividends to shareholders and also have a ten year streak of consecutive annual dividend increases. I have included a short summary behind each company, the raise, and the type of fundamental and valuation information I use to quickly decide if a company should be placed on my list for research or not.

The nine companies are listed below:

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) provides a range of financial products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Securities Services, Market and Wealth Services, Investment and Wealth Management, and other segments.

The company hiked quarterly dividends by 11.90% to $0.47/share.  This is the 14th consecutive annual dividend increases for this dividend achiever. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 8.70% over the past 5 years.

The company managed to grow earnings per share from $2.17 in 2014 to $3.89 in 2023.

The company is expected to earn $5.52/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 11.15 times forward earnings and yields 2.91%.

Cummins Inc. (CMI) designs, manufactures, distributes, and services diesel and natural gas engines, electric and hybrid powertrains, and related components worldwide. It operates through five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and Accelera.

Cummins raised quarterly dividends by 8.30% to $1.82/share. Cummins is a dividend achiever which has increased the quarterly common stock dividend to shareholders for 19 consecutive years. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 7.90% over the past 5 years.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company's earnings/share went from $9.04 to $5.19. That was driven by one-time charges against income however.

The company is expected to earn $18.53/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 15.10 times forward earnings and yields 2.54%.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) provides midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), crude oil, petrochemicals, and refined products. It operates in four segments: NGL Pipelines & Services, Crude Oil Pipelines & Services, Natural Gas Pipelines & Services, and Petrochemical & Refined Products Services.

The partnership hiked quarterly distributions by 1.90% to $0.525/unit. This is also a 5% increase over the distribution paid during the same time last year. This is the 26th consecutive annual distribution hike for this dividend champion.

Over the past five years, EPD has managed to grow distributions at an annualized rate of 2.90%.

The units yield 7.15% today.

Gladstone Land (LAND) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that acquires and owns farmland and farm-related properties located in major agricultural markets in the U.S. and leases its properties to unrelated third-party farmers

Gladstone Land increased its monthly dividends by 0.20% to $0.0467/share. This is a 1.08% raise over the monthly dividend paid during the same time last year. This is also the tenth consecutive annual dividend increase for this newly minted dividend achiever. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 0.80% over the past 5 years.

The REIT grew FFO/share from $0.24 in 2014 to $0.62 in 2023. It's expected to generate $0.62/share in FFO in 2024.

The stock sells for 23.50 times forward FFO and yields 3.83%.

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) is a professional services company, which provides advice and solutions to clients in the areas of risk, strategy, and people worldwide. It operates through Risk and Insurance Services, and Consulting segments. 

Marsh & McLennan increased quarterly dividends by 14.80% to $0.815/share. This is the 15th year of consecutive annual dividend increases for this dividend achiever. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 10.50% over the past 5 years.

The company managed to grow earnings per share from $2.69 in 2014 to $7.60 in 2023.

The company is expected to earn $8.70/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 25 times forward earnings and yields 1.50%.

Ryder System, Inc. (R) operates as a logistics and transportation company worldwide. It operates through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS).

The company raised quarterly dividends by 14.10% to $0.81/share. This is the 20th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 4.65% over the past 5 years.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $4.14/share to $8.90/share.

The company is expected to earn $12.04/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 10.40 times forward earnings and yields 2.50%.

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks.

The company increased quarterly dividends by 2% to $1.08/share. This is the 27th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend aristocrat. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 5% over the past 5 years.

Between 2015 and 2024, the company managed to grow earnings from $3.33/share to $7.15/share.

The company is expected to earn $10/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 11.10 times forward earnings and yields 3.82%.

Unum Group (UNM) provides financial protection benefit solutions primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, and internationally. It operates through Unum US, Unum International, Colonial Life, and Closed Block segment. 

The company raised quarterly dividends by 15.10% to $0.42/share. This is the 16th year of consecutive annual dividend increases for this dividend achiever. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 7.25% over the past 5 years.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $1.57/share to $6.53/share.

The company is expected to earn $8.23/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 6.25 times forward earnings and yields 3.25%.

FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW) operates as a bank holding company for 1st Security Bank of Washington that provides banking and financial services to local families, local and regional businesses, and industry niches. The company operates in two segments, Commercial and Consumer Banking; and Home Lending. 

The company increased quarterly dividends by 3.80% to $0.27/share. This is the second dividend increase this year bringing the dividend 8% higher than its level from the same time last year. This is the 11th consecutive annual dividend increase for this dividend achiever. The company has managed to grow dividends at an annualized rate of 30.40% over the past 5 years.

Between 2014 and 2023, the company managed to grow earnings from $0.76/share to $4.63/share.

The bank is expected to earn $4.21/share in 2024.

The stock sells for 8.70 times forward earnings and yields 2.85%.

Relevant Articles:

- Fourteen Dividend Growth Stocks Raising Dividends Last Week

- Four Dividend Growth Stocks Raising Dividends Last Week

- Six Companies Increasing Dividends to Shareholders Last Week

- Five Dividend Growth Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With Raises Last Week

The Importance of Diversification and Risk Management

With Dividend Growth Stocks, when I am wrong, the most I can lose is the amount I invested, minus any dividends I allocated elsewhere.

But when I am right, those winners can pay for several "losers".

Let me illustrate it with a few examples.

About 13 years ago, I initiated a position in Walgreen's (WBA). 

It offered a good valuation at 14 times earnings and a dividend yield of 2.50%. It also had a high dividend growth of 17%/year over the preceding decade, as well as a 10% earnings growth. Ironically, many dividend investors at the time viewed it as a "growth stock". It was for the first time in a long time been available at a very good entry valuation too.

I held the stock for a long time.

However, I sold the stock after it cut dividends on January 4, 2024. If you look at the total returns, it basically lost money. While I probably did a little better because I put the dividends elsewhere, rather than DRIPped them, I also added to it as well.

About the same time in 2011 I also initiated a position in Lowe's (LOW).

It offered a good valuation at 16.60 times earnings and a 2.90% dividend yield. The company had high dividend growth of 31.50%/year over the preceding decade. However, earnings per share growth was 9%. I bought it as the valuation was pretty good, despite the fact that the housing crisis was somewhat of a headwind.

I still own the stock. It has paid for several Walgreen's. 

This is why it is important to allocate a certain amount to a security, and then give it as much opportunity to compound earnings, dividends and intrinsic value as possible.  While some companies would fail to live up to expectations, there would be a few that would wildly exceed them. It is hard to predict the specific winners in advance. The best on can do is stick to their process, and patiently sit on their stocks. There is a natural Pareto principle in investing too, where a small number of companies would likely be responsible for a large portion of returns.

Those lucky few would be the difference between a portfolio making a decent return and a portfolio barely even making a return. If someone had sold them early, they would have likely sabotaged their portfolio. Hence why it is important to water the flowers and pluck the weeds. 

In other words, keeps losses to the amount invested, so that limits losses when you are wrong. But keep invested in a position for as long as possible, which gives you maximum chances of reaping the maximum potential returns from an investment.

It is also very helpful to review past investments, in an effort to learn and hopefully improve. I have learned the importance of not selling, and staying invested as long as possible. 

I have also learned that it is important to strike when I see an opportunity, rather than sit and twiddle my thumbs. Those are what Buffett calls "mistakes of omission". This is where you find a good company, but you fail to invest due to "reasons". 

I personally missed investing in Eli Lilly (LLY) in 2009, which had done tremendously well. I also missed investing in Pfizer (PFE), which hadn't. However, a combined invested in Eli Lilly and Pfizer would have done very well in a diversified portfolio. 

What is the point of this article?

It is to share experience, and lessons I have learned along the way.

This post illustrates the importance of having a diversified portfolio and practice sound risk management. Diversification can definitely protect against risks, and I am a big fan of it.

It's also important to manage risk, and have a plan of how much to bet on a company, when to sell and how long to hold for.

In a diversified portfolio, your winners would do much better than the losers. Even if you have a few bad apples, the winners would likely more than pay for them, and still result in an overall good results. 

One definitely needs to let the winners win for as long as possible, in order to pay for the losers down the road. Selling too early could be the difference between making money and losing money overall.

Buffett on ignoring stock price fluctuations and thinking like a business owner

One of my favorite Berkshire Hathaway letters to shareholders is the one from 2013. It left a very big impression on me, mostly because it discussed some important lessons on dealing with market fluctuations. The lessons were illustrated by two investments that Buffett had made.

The investments were in a farm in Nebraska and a New York property adjacent to NYU.

He made these investments at what he believed to be a low price. In the case of the farm, Buffett tried to estimate how much agricultural products like soybeans and corn can be produced. He looked at estimated costs, and calculated the effect on future productivity improvements.  While he knew that there will be disappointing years, he did know that over time, things would be ok. As a result he held on to the farm. It cost $280,000 in 1986 and had an yield of about 10%. By 2013, the farm had increased five times in value, and tripled its earnings. In this deal, he seeked the expertise of his son Howard, who is a farmer.

The other property he invested in 1993 was the one close to NYU. It also had an unlevered yield of 10%, When analyzing the deal, Buffett looked for improvements such as replacing tenants that weren’t charged market rents with new ones as well as leasing vacant stores. He partnered with a couple experienced real estate investors, who knew how to manage the property and unlock value.

As a result of a couple of debt refinancing, expiring leases which were signed at higher rates, and better management of operations, annual distributions increased to 35% of the original equity investment. In addition, he also received several special distributions totaling more than 150% of the original investment. Annual distributions being compared to original cost remind me of the Yield on Cost indicator than many dividend growth investors use. 

Buffett used these investments in order to illustrate several fundamentals of investing:

- You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns

- Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering.

- Think only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations

- If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating

- Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. What the economy, interest rates, or the stock market might do in the years immediately following is of no importance of making those investments.

There was a big difference between investing in businesses and investing in stocks however. Equities offer minute by minute prices. Yet, his farm or real estate do not produce quotes.

Warren Buffett is famous for saying :

 ‘‘After we buy a stock, consequently, we would not be distrurbed if markets closed for a year or two. We don’t need a daily quote on our 100 percent position in See’s to validate our well being. Why, then, should we need a quote on our 7 percent interest in Coke (KO)?’’

Sometimes Mr Market offers a tremendous bargain and sometimes Mr Market offers a ridiculously high price for an asset. Most of the time, it pays to just ignore Mr Market, unless you want to take advantage of this moody fellow.

People who focus too much on stock price fluctuations, end up being influenced by the manic depressive Mr Market. They feel the urge to do something, which leads to many investors selling low and buying high.

Most of these investors would likely do better by sticking to private businesses and real estate, where they do not get a daily quote. This let’s them focus on the business, its fundamentals and ignore all the noise. For many folks, the instant liquidity that the stock market offers is more of a curse, than a blessing. Perhaps these folks would be better off buying and owning a private business. But if they were to invest in equities, they need to see themselves as partial owners of a business enterprise, and not view stocks as some sort of a lottery ticket. Perhaps that’s why Buffett has stated that you should not buy a business, unless you are willing to hold it for a decade, even if they closed the stock market for ten years.

Thinking like a business owner has a lot of advantages. Mostly, it lets you focus on the business, and ignore noise. Second, it helps you stay patient, when everyone around you is panicking. This was evident during the Global Financial Crisis, and was evident during the Covid-19 crash in 2020. Few investors can sit patiently, when their stocks are going down or even going up. 

This is why I try to tell investors to focus on the dividend stream produced by the companies they own, and try to research to see if the payout is adequate and that earnings can grow over time. This lifehack of focusing on the stability of the dividend stream lets the investor avoid being scared away by share price fluctuations. If you are an investor in the accumulation phase, stock price declines should be viewed with excitement, because lower prices mean that future retirement income can be bought on sale. 

If you are a retired investor, you should ignore price fluctuations. Instead, focus on the income from your investments.

Both groups should care about prices only when they have money to invest.

Relevant Articles:

- Dividend Investors Should Ignore Market Fluctuations

- Are you ready for the next bear market?

- Dividend Investors: Stay The Course

- Dividend Investors Will Make Money Even if the Stock Market Closed for Ten Years

- Dividend Investors Should Ignore Price Fluctuations